Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-09-29 18.623633 20.202064 21.938114 24.006081 26.425203 29.195010 32.650410
2024-10-06 16.126342 18.187227 20.615732 23.747876 27.774766 32.924030 40.277300
2024-10-13 14.479880 16.792438 19.659409 23.592815 29.061867 36.783828 49.394901
2024-10-20 13.136857 15.540043 18.631015 23.074440 29.649804 39.750679 58.457616
2024-10-27 12.575630 15.184788 18.673300 23.950811 32.339300 46.631764 78.075327
2024-11-03 11.792248 14.434437 18.060658 23.745051 33.263307 50.842108 95.803919
2024-11-10 11.211515 13.895107 17.667915 23.784260 34.562679 56.210073 122.255029
2024-11-17 10.746965 13.470393 17.384759 23.934332 36.065566 62.640555 162.654189
2024-11-24 10.333167 13.080060 17.105959 24.037139 37.486819 69.605677 224.181087
2024-12-01 9.895802 12.621141 16.675958 23.815054 38.199629 75.185190 304.272446
2024-12-08 9.557660 12.284148 16.404001 23.829869 39.411561 82.993843 469.530412
2024-12-15 9.207209 11.905710 16.033643 23.615979 40.068260 89.598978 755.932509
2024-12-22 8.869699 11.533421 15.654683 23.360022 40.625560 96.619456 1485.099343
2024-12-29 8.570855 11.204704 15.324696 23.162305 41.298771 104.930156 5519.223134
2025-01-05 8.308993 10.919255 15.046484 23.034057 42.131793 115.055703 NaN
2025-01-12 8.005324 10.553817 14.610049 22.544358 41.910609 120.138987 NaN
2025-01-19 7.945682 10.568175 14.819626 23.390365 45.605892 152.820164 NaN
2025-01-26 7.724630 10.314084 14.546195 23.194176 46.242454 168.047699 NaN
2025-02-02 7.554111 10.133321 14.390038 23.232517 47.628234 193.252834 NaN
2025-02-09 7.409907 9.988352 14.287788 23.377034 49.420537 229.476565 NaN
2025-02-16 7.267998 9.840637 14.171024 23.475951 51.116170 274.523236 NaN
2025-02-23 7.092384 9.630327 13.928416 23.262557 51.663910 309.190760 NaN
2025-03-02 6.956597 9.480775 13.789352 23.276818 53.082730 373.316472 NaN